October 2010 - Volume 5, Issue 4                                                                       1.800.424.2495
D&B Insights: Government Edition
D&B Economic Reports
In response to customer feedback for more insights on the economic trends around the world, we are pleased to share our recent economic trends reports on the U.S., China and Latin America, as well as special reports on Basel III and the EU Bank Stress Tests.
Article1U.S. Business Trends Report-October 2010
D&B provides an analysis of and insight from recent failure, bankruptcy and delinquency trends through second quarter on 27 million U.S. based businesses. The economy continues to recover from the deep recession of 2008/2009. This has led to improved business confidence and trading conditions. However, businesses will continue to face high levels of uncertainty and risk.

Here are some highlights:

Insight 1: Business bankruptcies are still growing but at a slower pace compared to a year ago. Business failures have actually registered a decline in the 12 months ending in June 2010 compared to 12 months ending in June 2009. 

Figure 1
 
Insight 2: Overall U.S. business failure rates have improved in the past 12 months, however; the Transportation, Construction and Manufacturing industries failure rates remain 40%-80% higher than the U.S. average.
  
 Figure 2
Insight 3: Percentage of delinquent dollars is showing a decline in past three months, and seems to have stabilized over the past year indicating businesses are finding it easier to pay their lenders and suppliers. This is a very important leading indicator. However, the percentages are still much higher than the pre-recession level indicating continuing difficulty. 

 Figure 6

Click here to read full report on the U.S. Business Trends Report - October 2010.  
Article2The Business Impact of 'Basel III'
BaselThe proposed new regulations on the banking sector, know as 'Basel III', will raise capital requirements for banks, thus strengthening the stability of the global financial system. These accords, developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, deal with the whole spectrum of regulatory and superviosry issues, including liquidity standards, credit, operational and market risk management and accounting standards. However, a by-product of the regulation will be the adoption of tighter credit conditions for certain business activities. In the medium term, as banks increase their capital ratios by reducing lending, acccess to credit is likely to become more difficult and borrowing costs are liable to increase. The new rules will affect mostly smaller financial institutions and, as a result, credit conditions for small and medium-sized companies.

Click here to read full report on Basel III.
Article3China's Role in Shaping World Trade
ChinaChina's role as an engine of the global economy has become firmly established in recent decades. By the early 2020s, China could become the largest economy. In the next decade, Chinese demand will continue to reshape international trade, and play a vital role in determining which economies will grow or stagnate. The trend has been for rising raw materials imports to satisfy China's domestic demand, but such demand can be volatile, reflecting abrupt policy changes and factors specific to the Chinese economy. The labor market, as well, has entered a period of structural change, with the risk of strikes as workers enjoy greater bargaining power with firms.

With this in mind, business intelligence on the Chinese economy and its global economic developments, credit risks, and inventory management is essential for any company with an international presence. Analysis of the short-term and long-term factors governing the Chinese economy, as well as the role of Chinese demand in the world economy, should help to guide robust decisions. Identifying the countries and sectors with upside exposure to China's economic growth, both to seize new market opportunities and to manage risk when China's import demand slows or contracts, will be crucial for long-term corporate strategy and short-term risk management. Patterns of growth will continue to change, and it is important to recognize that China is a vital component of global economic growth patterns.

Click here to read full report on China's Role in Shaping World Trade.
Article4Latin America-Shielded from a Global Slowdown?
LatinAmericaWhile Latin America will be affected by a slowdown in global economic activity over the second half of 2010, many countries in the region continue to post relatively robust economic growth. Despite subdued demand in its traditional export market of the U.S. and the EU, countries such as Peru and Brazil have attributed their economic recovery to a rapid rise in investment. Latin America will continue to offer a lucrative export market and investment destination over the short term despite the likely slowdown. Overall, D&B expects the region as a whole to experience economic growth of 4.4% in 2010, lagging behind Asia Pacific with a growth of 5.4%.

Nevertheless, there are a number of significant risks that will affect doing business in the region, notably the risk of a market correction in exchange rates, inflation pressures, ongoing political uncertainty, and more subdued economic recovery or recession in certain countries.

Click here to read full report on Latin America.

Article5Unraveling the EU Bank Stress Tests
EUAt first sight, the recent EU-wide bank stress tests were passed with flying colors, amid enhanced transparency and incentives for banks to develop plans for emergency funding. Financial markets reacted fairly positively, with bond, equity, and currency markets remaining fairly calm. Of the 91 leading European banks tested, only seven failed the severest of the stress scenarios. Banks had to prove capable of keeping their Tier One capital ratios-the ratio of a bank's capital to its risk-about 6% in order to pass the tests. However, D&B believes that the tests were only partially successful, with many negative aspects clouding the results; in particular, the test criteria were considered not nearly stringent enough to comprehensively test the health of the European banking sector.

The main problem of the tests was that they did not properly account for the risk of a sovereign debt default in the euro-zone in 2010-11. Another problem lies in the fact that not all sovereign bonds have been tested. The assets tested were only those sovereign bonds that are traded-so-called mark-to-market-rather than those held to maturity by banks. D&B is also concerned that the tests' scope was not sufficient to fully test the health of European banks. This is because the tests focused on asset quality rather than liquidity risks. That being said, the upside of these tests is that they enhanced transparency in the financial sector, restored some confidence in national and EU-wide banking supervision, and helped banks to develop plans for emergency funding in the event of severe shocks.

Click here to read full report on the EU Bank Stress Tests.
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